少数派规则:不可妥协的少数可能支配多数
多数人既能接受 A,也能接受 B;少数人只接受 A。集体为了减少采购和沟通成本,最后往往统一选择 A。人数占优的多数没有消失,他们只是在这件事上更容易适应。
饮食、会议语言和产品标准都可能出现这种情况。非转基因食品的支持者拒绝转基因食品,另一边通常两种都吃;只要价差不大,餐厅和活动主办者直接选择非转基因,反而省事。公司里只要有一名与会者不会德语,整场会议就可能改用大家都会一点的英语。
少数派规则需要条件。少数人的偏好必须真的不可妥协,多数人能够接受少数人的选项,统一采用的成本也不能太高。少数人怎样分布同样重要,这一点可以继续放回 尺度效应:群体规模会改变合作规则 看。
《Skin in the Game》原文:
big agricultural companies foolishly believed that all they needed was to win the majority. No, you idiots. Your snap “scientific” judgment is too naive for these types of decisions. Consider that transgenic-GMO eaters will eat non-GMOs, but not the reverse. So it may suffice to have a tiny percentage—say, no more than 5 percent—of an evenly spatially distributed population of non-genetically modified eaters for the entire population to have to eat non-GMO food.
How? Say you have a corporate event, a wedding, or a lavish party to celebrate the fall of the Saudi Arabian regime, the bankruptcy of the rent-seeking investment bank Goldman Sachs, or the public reviling of Ray Kotcher, chairman of Ketchum the contemptible public relations firm, the enemy of scientists and scientific whistleblowers. Do you need to send a questionnaire asking people if they eat or don’t eat transgenic GMOs and reserve special meals accordingly? No. You just select everything non-GMO, provided the price difference is not consequential
Rory wrote to me about the beer-wine asymmetry and the choices made for parties: “Once you have 10 percent or more women at a party, you cannot serve only beer. But most men will drink wine. So you only need one set of glasses if you serve only wine—the universal donor, to use the language of blood groups. (Location 1313)
If a meeting is taking place in Germany in the Teutonic-looking conference room of a corporation that is sufficiently international or European, and one of the persons in the room doesn’t speak German, the entire meeting will be run in…English, the brand of inelegant English used in corporations across the world. That way they can equally offend their Teutonic ancestors and the English language. It all started with the asymmetric rule that those who are nonnative in English know (bad) English, but the reverse—English speakers knowing other languages—is less likely (Location 1321)
Genes follow majority rule; languages minority rule. Languages travel; genes less so. (Location 1351)
Links to this note
- Skin in the Game
书里关于群体的部分拆成四张。复杂系统:整体无法由平均个体线性推导 处理个体与整体,尺度效应:群体规模会改变合作规则 处理规模变化,少数派规则:不可妥协的少数可能支配多数 处理适应能力的不对称,去中心化:限制错误的扩散半径 处理失败应该停在哪里。