确定语气会降低说服力

富兰克林刻意戒掉 certainly、undoubtedly 这类表示意见已经确定的词，换成 I conceive、I apprehend、it appears to me。目的不只在谦逊，也在提高谈话的效果。

I continu'd this method some few years, but gradually left it, retaining only the habit of expressing myself in terms of modest diffidence; never using, when I advanced anything that may possibly be disputed, the words certainly, undoubtedly, or any others that give the air of positiveness to an opinion; but rather say, I conceive or apprehend a thing to be so and so; it appears to me, or I should think it so or so, for such and such reasons; or I imagine it to be so; or it is so, if I am not mistaken. This habit, I believe, has been of great advantage to me when I have had occasion to inculcate my opinions, and persuade men into measures that I have been from time to time engaged in promoting; and, as the chief ends of conversation are to inform or to be informed, to please or to persuade, I wish well-meaning, sensible men would not lessen their power of doing good by a positive, assuming manner, that seldom fails to disgust, tends to create opposition, and to defeat everyone of those purposes for which speech was given to us, to wit, giving or receiving information or pleasure. For, if you would inform, a positive and dogmatical manner in advancing your sentiments may provoke contradiction and prevent a candid attention. If you wish information and improvement from the knowledge of others, and yet at the same time express yourself as firmly fix'd in your present opinions, modest, sensible men, who do not love disputation, will probably leave you undisturbed in the possession of your error. And by such a manner, you can seldom hope to recommend yourself in pleasing your hearers, or to persuade those whose concurrence you desire.

说得太满会同时损害两个方向。想说服别人时，它容易引起对抗；想从别人那里获得信息时，谨慎而有见识的人可能懒得争辩，任由你留在错误里。于是，确定语气给说话者增加了气势，却减少了修正意见的机会。

I even forbid myself, agreeably to the old laws of our Junto, the use of every word or expression in the language that imported a fix'd opinion, such as certainly, undoubtedly, etc., and I adopted, instead of them, I conceive, I apprehend, or I imagine a thing to be so or so; or it so appears to me at present. When another asserted something that I thought an error, I deny'd myself the pleasure of contradicting him abruptly, and of showing immediately some absurdity in his proposition; and in answering I began by observing that in certain cases or circumstances his opinion would be right, but in the present case there appear'd or seem'd to me some difference, etc. I soon found the advantage of this change in my manner; the conversations I engag'd in went on more pleasantly.

两道障碍：需要自己是对的，和看不见自己看不见什么 也警惕一句口头上的“我可能不对”。如果留余地只是一段礼貌前缀，后面仍然照旧断言，它并没有增加开放。富兰克林写的是一种连反驳方式都一起改变的习惯。

富兰克林的做法是把"certainly""undoubtedly"从嘴里去掉，换成"我设想""如果我没弄错的话"。这不是谦虚，是在给对方留一条不必认输就能同意的路。

两道障碍：需要自己是对的，和看不见自己看不见什么 里 Dalio 提了一个相反方向的警告：开口就是"我可能不对，但我认为……"的人，多半并不开放，那句前缀常常只是让人保住自己的看法。两条并不冲突，富兰克林改的是听者的处境，Dalio 说的是说者的自欺，而同一句话可以同时做这两件事。

没有哪个想法神圣到不能被嘲笑 和 可信度加权不是民主投票 是从制度那一侧解决同一个问题。 ——收入 读书笔记 · 一得

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