夜航船

偶然发现需要先暴露在机会中

正面的黑天鹅无法按计划制造,却可以增加遇见它的机会。试验要足够多,单次损失要能承受,还要让偶然的信息和人进入日常。

Among many other benefits, you can set yourself up to collect serendipitous Black Swans (of the positive kind) by maximizing your exposure to them.

the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or “incentives” for skill.

原笔记把这一点接到了 永恒的终结:永恒时空不断消除风险,也一并消除了试错。两者的关系在 消除灾难也可能消除发展的机会 里展开。

——收入 书架 · 思维模型