思想压缩：复杂表达有时意味着理解尚未完成

术语越密、图表越多、模型越精细，内容看起来越专业。塔勒布怀疑的是复杂度与理解之间那条未经检查的联系。一个观点需要不断增加细节才能维持，有时只是核心因果关系没有讲清楚。

压缩也不能变成粗暴简化。气候、金融市场和生物系统确实需要复杂模型。可以检查的是，增加的复杂度有没有带来更强的解释力，模型是否给出了可能被现实推翻的判断。后一条与 Falsifiability 可证伪性 相连。

流畅同样会冒充内容。认知流畅性让熟悉显得真实 讨论的是读者为何容易相信顺口的话，这张卡讨论表达者怎样用术语和图表提高质疑成本。两边碰到的正是同一次误认。

诗歌把经验压缩成可以保存的形式 提供了一个对照。诗歌的压缩追求保留经验，模型的压缩追求保留关系。两者都短，却不能用同一种准确性衡量。

《Skin in the Game》原文：

I—as a probability professional—left data out of The Black Swan (except for illustrative purposes) is that it seems to me that people flood their stories with numbers and graphs in the absence of solid or logical arguments.

Traders, when they make profits, have short communications; when they lose they drown you in details, theories, and charts.

So I’ve discovered, with experience, that when you buy a thick book with tons of graphs and tables used to prove a point, you should be suspicious. It means something didn’t distill right!

It is easy to scam people by getting them into complications—the poor are spared that type of scamming.

——收入 书架 · 思维模型